Discussion about this post

User's avatar
The Silent Treasury's avatar

Hello there,

Huge Respect for your work!

New here. No huge reader base Yet.

But the work has waited long to be spoken.

Its truths have roots older than this platform.

My Sub-stack Purpose

To seed, build, and nurture timeless, intangible human capitals — such as resilience, trust, truth, evolution, fulfilment, quality, peace, patience, discipline, relationships and conviction — in order to elevate human judgment, deepen relationships, and restore sacred trusteeship and stewardship of long-term firm value across generations.

A refreshing take on our business world and capitalism.

A reflection on why today’s capital architectures—PE, VC, Hedge funds, SPAC, Alt funds, Rollups—mostly fail to build and nuture what time can trust.

“Built to Be Left.”

A quiet anatomy of extraction, abandonment, and the collapse of stewardship.

"Principal-Agent Risk is not a flaw in the system.

It is the system’s operating principle”

Experience first. Return if it speaks to you.

- The Silent Treasury

https://tinyurl.com/48m97w5e

Expand full comment
James Emanuel's avatar

It's been a year since you posted this. Things have changed since then, including the share price.

For me, there are four key drivers of driving durable shareholder returns:

1. Sales Growth

2. Margin Improvements

3. Multiple Expansion

4. Reduction in Share Count

Norbit has been driving (1) hard and, judging by its ambitions, will drive this higher - so far so good.

In respect of (2), margin seems to have reached a plateau, so while this has factored into past returns, it is unlikely to drive future returns.

Most of the shareholder returns in the past year or so have been multiple expansion - perhaps irrational exuberance on the part of investors. The multiple now looks stretched. This would imply that no returns will be driven by this factor and, more of a concern, is that if the multiple contracts it will negate the positive effect of top line growth.

The share count has not reduced. If anything it has slightly increased. So this would result in mild dilution, also working against shareholder returns.

The way I see it - past performance will not be repeated in the years ahead. Best case scenario shareholder returns track top line growth. More likely, they will lag behind top line growth because of drag caused by factors (2), (3) and (4).

What is your view currently, given the doubling of the share price since you wrote this article (the economic value of the business certainly hasn't doubled in a year - so has the price run too far ahead of the underlying business?)

I welcome your views.

Expand full comment
3 more comments...

No posts