Thanks for your April insight! Your portfolio changed enormously. Is this part of your strategy to change your holdings that much within months? I also opened a position in MMGR and HEM. HEM is more of a watchlist position for me, as I feel uncomfortable with the current valuation. That said, the moat is quite impressive at the moment. But technology is always more fleeting than a serial acquirer 😉
How do you value Topicus?
I’d love to learn more about Asseco and the entire group of holdings – ACP, ASE, ABS – but there doesn’t seem to be much information available out there. Did you do some research on them?
Also, have you ever looked into Pinetree? (It's run by Mark Leonard’s son, apparently 😉)
Hi mate - haven't touched anything since the Q1 update, where I went through my reasoning for the toss up 😊
In terms of Topicus, I suspect that the share price might've gotten ahead of itself, but I'm not inclined to do anything - ironically I want to avoid overactivity 😅
Pinetree is not for me, it's to expensive based on my understanding, but I wouldn't be surprised if they Leonards prove me wrong over time.
Thats what im Here for! Great write Up, i Love to read IT.
To your First question, If you should keep your winner Fairfax:
In my opinion IT depends in how you evaluate your Position. Selling IT Just to even Out the Portfolio more IS actionism in my opinion. To Put in to perspective, Fairfax is a fairly mature company with a defensive Businessmodel while hemnet is a small company with all the ups and Downs this brings.
However i can also See buying more hemnet or harvia.
I Always liked your approach to have some highly Specialized niche dominating Holdings alongside Defensive blue-chip positions like Visa or in this Case Fairfax.
Yea, action vs. inaction is a tough one. Hemnet should however be understood as an extremely defensible model (no volume growth for years, but growth >30% over years).
In the end, I think it's all about putting ourselves as investors in a good position to act rationally. Overweight positions might make that harder.
1. Think of it as a OEM/Indutrade meets Lagercrantz/Sdiptech meets B&B right after it's reorientation towards decentralisation (CEO Caroline Reuterskiöld was VP of Lagers Niche segment for many years)
2. Have for the last 3-5 years been dormant on acquisitions as they have turned from an centralised to a decentralised operation, turned several things more profitable et.c. - this is done and confirmed
3. Have had several industrial sub-companies struggling, but order intake and cash flow shows that things have really hit their stride again (just look at the highlights AR24 and Q1)
4. Now they're buying businesses again, and seemingly in niche industrial segment with a focus on industrial tailwinds (such as energy and resource efficiencies, et.c.)
Coming of a base of 59mln SEK EBITA for 2024 there's a sub-one foot hurdle to start growing at great rates. Autofric adds ~10mln EBITA for 2025 on a standalone basis.
I'm going to be focusing on this for my next company deep dive. Let's hope we're cursed with poor weather so that I have a reason to stay indoors and write.
Thanks for the mention, really appreciated. Also interesting to understand more on Berner Industries!
Thanks for your April insight! Your portfolio changed enormously. Is this part of your strategy to change your holdings that much within months? I also opened a position in MMGR and HEM. HEM is more of a watchlist position for me, as I feel uncomfortable with the current valuation. That said, the moat is quite impressive at the moment. But technology is always more fleeting than a serial acquirer 😉
How do you value Topicus?
I’d love to learn more about Asseco and the entire group of holdings – ACP, ASE, ABS – but there doesn’t seem to be much information available out there. Did you do some research on them?
Also, have you ever looked into Pinetree? (It's run by Mark Leonard’s son, apparently 😉)
Hi mate - haven't touched anything since the Q1 update, where I went through my reasoning for the toss up 😊
In terms of Topicus, I suspect that the share price might've gotten ahead of itself, but I'm not inclined to do anything - ironically I want to avoid overactivity 😅
Pinetree is not for me, it's to expensive based on my understanding, but I wouldn't be surprised if they Leonards prove me wrong over time.
Thats what im Here for! Great write Up, i Love to read IT.
To your First question, If you should keep your winner Fairfax:
In my opinion IT depends in how you evaluate your Position. Selling IT Just to even Out the Portfolio more IS actionism in my opinion. To Put in to perspective, Fairfax is a fairly mature company with a defensive Businessmodel while hemnet is a small company with all the ups and Downs this brings.
However i can also See buying more hemnet or harvia.
I Always liked your approach to have some highly Specialized niche dominating Holdings alongside Defensive blue-chip positions like Visa or in this Case Fairfax.
IT Evens the waves in the Market more Out.
Glad to hear you enjoyed it Rudolfoi!
Yea, action vs. inaction is a tough one. Hemnet should however be understood as an extremely defensible model (no volume growth for years, but growth >30% over years).
In the end, I think it's all about putting ourselves as investors in a good position to act rationally. Overweight positions might make that harder.
Hope you have a good day,
Kind regards,
Mathias
Thanks for the mention!! Can you do a brief summing up about the thesis on Berner Industries? It sounds interesting but I'm not familiar with the name
Well let's try:
1. Think of it as a OEM/Indutrade meets Lagercrantz/Sdiptech meets B&B right after it's reorientation towards decentralisation (CEO Caroline Reuterskiöld was VP of Lagers Niche segment for many years)
2. Have for the last 3-5 years been dormant on acquisitions as they have turned from an centralised to a decentralised operation, turned several things more profitable et.c. - this is done and confirmed
3. Have had several industrial sub-companies struggling, but order intake and cash flow shows that things have really hit their stride again (just look at the highlights AR24 and Q1)
4. Now they're buying businesses again, and seemingly in niche industrial segment with a focus on industrial tailwinds (such as energy and resource efficiencies, et.c.)
Coming of a base of 59mln SEK EBITA for 2024 there's a sub-one foot hurdle to start growing at great rates. Autofric adds ~10mln EBITA for 2025 on a standalone basis.
I'm going to be focusing on this for my next company deep dive. Let's hope we're cursed with poor weather so that I have a reason to stay indoors and write.